The Hand that Giveth

The Russian-Ukrainian war drags on for the second year. It could have been over by now, if it wasn’t for the infinitely cautious, weighted, measured approach by some countries that support Ukraine. We can’t say we have a deep understanding of how it all works. Yet, if our judgment is to be based on how it all unfolds, we can say this: while Ukraine is getting significant military support, it is not getting military aid in the volume that would permit it to win.

We are past the cautious “lets see how it all unfolds before we commit” stage, of February-March 2022, when Russia invaded. Ukraine and its people proved themselves to be very capable of defending and winning back their country, slowly but surely. Despite significant military losses they don’t talk about and with civilian losses they do inform the world about.

The time it took the Americans and the Europeans to think it over, coordinate, develop logistics, negotiate with Ukraine and each other, develop stipulations and limitations, and finally deliver weapons wasn’t lost on the bloody Russian Empire. They have used the delays to develop their own attack drones, draft more men into the army, build trenches and bunkers, dig anti-tank ditches; to erect obstacles and defensive positions. They have also laid miles and miles of dense minefields to protect themselves from Ukrainian assault. There must be hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines out there. All of this costs Ukraine countless lives and slows them down. We obviously don’t have the numbers, but you get the picture. Delays are deadly.

Western military experts complain that Ukrainian soldiers are not fighting like they were taught in training camps and the generals are moving troops with less than optimal efficiency. But they forget this is a real war, not yet described in military textbooks. Ukraine is fighting its battles with the weapons they have on hand and must do with what they got. The allies do not provide enough weapons to win this war, exercise backward political thinking to a degree, and are afraid of Russia. In for a dime, you’re in for a dollar. What is there to be afraid of?

At the time of this writing Germany had delivered only 10% of the weapons pledged. Ten percent! Where is the rest? Why the delays? They have all sorts of excuses. Germany, despite finally relenting and starting to supply the weapon systems, still drags its feet. Several countries with advanced military technologies have abstained from rendering any military support. Switzerland, claiming neutrality and Austria, permeated by Russia-friendly politicians, just wouldn’t do anything. Hungary maintains an active pro-Russian political position, promoting its agenda at every opportunity. It seems, in “EU” the letter “U” isn’t “Union”, but rather “Undecided” or “Unwise.” Countries of EU are demanding that Ukraine not use donated weaponry against Russia outside of Ukraine’s territory. How smart. Offer aid but make sure Ukraine can’t use it to finish off the beast. Mr. Stephen Blank, Ph.D., is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute has spelled it out succinctly.

This war isn’t going to end when Russia is thrown out of Ukraine’s occupied territories. Instead it will give Russia time to transform itself into a military economy empire, to rebuild its weaponry, the Armed Forces and assault other countries with fresh vigor. Pretending to not understand this is deadly. We think that the job started must be finished at all costs. Russia must be fully defeated. Not thrown out, but rather it must capitulate. Surrender its nuclear weaponry, its rockets, dismantle the military machine and not rebuild. Germany defeated in WW I is the prime example. They lost the war, paid reparations, but seethed with anger and hurt national pride. Adolf Hitler played on these emotions and started a new deadly war. Russia would be no different if left to its own devices.

We happened to believe there is some kind of hidden agenda between the US President Biden and Russia’s Putin, and this agenda is driving this war. The United States continued to resist Ukrainian requests for long range rockets, F16 and even older Warthog jets, that could have swayed the course of the war. The generous US “hand that giveth” aren’t doing enough so the war can be won. CIA’s chief Burns’ visit to Moscow just prior to the war may have created a certain ‘understanding’ between two countries, so called ‘red lines’ the United States is unwilling to cross. Are we afraid of Russia? Do we want Ukraine to win, soon? Doesn’t look like it, from where we are. There are other indications that the two sides are secretly talking to each other. But the conclusion is simple – Biden does NOT want to give Ukraine outright success. If they win, it will be despite our country’s hidden aversion to this victory. There is no other explanation to Biden’s behavior, none.

F16 deliveries to Ukraine will not begin this fall or even this winter, pending pilot training, which had been significantly delayed also. The United States finally signed off on pilot training by other countries, while resisting it for a long time.

Delaying putting all you have into the war is wrong – morally, politically and financially. John Bolton, @AmbJohnBolton, a hawkish former U.S. ambassador to the UN and an ex-national security advisor, said it on Twitter, Aug 14, 2023: “Ukrainians’ inability to achieve major advances is the natural result of a U.S. strategy aimed only at staving off Russian conquest. Biden needs to start vigorously working toward victory. It’s time to get moving.”

Defeat Russia: Do it right once. The collective West just doesn’t learn its history lessons. We should call this behavior “if only they knew.” If only they knew in 1918-22 that not truly participating in and not winning the Russian civil war by the army of the ‘old Russia’ vs. the communists would roughly cost the collective West 9-10 trillion dollars in today’s equivalent. These were the funds spent in the Cold War. Imagine what the world would be like today if all this wealth could be used on betterment of respective societies and not on containing the Soviet Union and its satellites at the time. We have the same task at hand again. Putin’s Russia is now spending approximately 30% of its state budget on the war in Ukraine. This number is going to be 50% next year. They anticipate another draft of 450,000 men this year. Is anyone listening?

They will not stop, not with Ukraine, not next year. Putin pointed this out several times. His propagandists yell about it from TV screens. They want a war with the Western world. And the West cannot avoid the war with Russia within its own lands, unless Ukraine wins decisively. Russia will eventually invade the West, just because it can, when it suits its political goals. An excellent  BBC interview with a Ukrainian journalist answers many questions, use Google Translate if you care for an inside look. Sanctions against Russia do not work – too many participants, eager to make the extra dough, are helping it to acquire technologies it needs to build the drones, tanks, artillery, military optics, GPS, rocket engines. The list is long, but just about anything the West embargoes, finds its way into Russia through China, Turkey, Armenia, Uzbekistan, Tadjikistan, Kazakhstan, Maldives, Iran, UAE and a slew of others, where political powers look the other way. Russia now pays more for it but who cares. The oil they sell around the world continues to finance their war machine. There is a very comprehensive article on the subject but one must again use Google Translate to read it.

Every single high-ranking member of the current Russian government was once a member of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Communists always seeks world domination, it’s a plague. There are no former communists. They started fires in the Middle East, Asia, stirred discontent in Africa, promoted Socialist political models and peddled influence in South America, built military bases in Syria, Cuba, Vietnam. They are best friends with Iran, Syria, and North Korea. But we are doing business with them and tolerating their subversion against us. By its own nature Russia shows nothing but destruction, culture notwithstanding. A historical perspective may be found here.

On top of that, pacifism reigns supreme.  Politicians say stupid things about negotiating with the Russian Federation now, in the midst of war. These are not errors in judgment. Somewhere in the chain there are Russian lukers, paying those who promote the aggressor’s agenda. Even the current leftist Pope, addressing the Russian youth, had invited them to be proud of their country. No joke.

“The Hand that Giveth” must do more, a lot more. The time is now.