Killing Two Birds with One Stone. Putin vs. Ukraine, January 2022

We are witnessing unprecedented build-up of Russian forces along the borders of Ukraine these days.

It is our prediction that they will imminently attack that country. Why do we think so? Because the troop build-up had not stopped for one minute even when talks on various levels were conducted between the Europeans, Americans and Russians. Not for a moment.

It’s all on Youtube. The railroad trains with all sorts of heavy armor, troops, support vehicles and engineering elements of invasion force have been rolling from many places (some as far as Russia’s Far East) to the most western of its lands, bordering Ukraine on all sides. China should take the opportunity to take away some Russia’s land there, as Russian troops have been depleted along its border. We say it in jest of course, but there is a bit of joke in every joke.

They never had any intensions to stop this plan that was put in motion. The juggernaut is almost complete. Some Russian military landing ships are sailing from the Baltic Sea into the Black Sea; Russian Airborne Rangers have left Kazakhstan where they sprayed bullets over locals protesting the political and living conditions there; they are being moved to the Russia’s border with Ukraine. Thousands of tanks, hundred of jets and helicopters, well over 150 thousand Russian troops and reservists have been mobilized and trained. The Russian government only needs a spark to ignite the entire thing. A Russian officer, with what may be an invasion HQ, inadvertently emailed a “condolence memo” to a commander of a local military in Donetsk, part of the Ukraine’s territories occupied by the forces aligned with the Russian Federation. The memo expresses condolences over untimely departures of two prominent local politicians and some unfortunate bystanders. Both are very much alive as of this writing. Their intended murder simply shows what could have become of them if Russia had its way and if this hadn’t leaked out. The kill could have given the Russian empire a “casus belli” to move in and “protect its citizens”.

None of it has begun yet. The talks are running out of steam over Russia’s demands that cannot be patently satisfied by the USA and the countries of NATO. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs offers little in terms of diplomacy to its Western partners. Its press briefings are mostly barking and biting; insults, innuendos, lame joking, cynicism and streams of accusation without as much as a sliver of hope for the rest of the world.  This will all end as one big, ferocious, bloody war that is about to engulf the European continent.

Those thinking it will all stop at the Ukrainian borders – think again. Multiple countries will willingly join the fight against Russia – or be dragged into the war by circumstances. All Eastern European countries, with exception of those lead by Putin’s cronies, will have to stand with Ukraine. This will happen regardless of political differences they may have with the current government of that country. Ukraine’s government, for those who don’t follow the events closely, is rather inept; infused with Russia’s agents and spies. They will be used to weaken resolve, induce discord, seed calamity and paralysis into the country’s command structure when invasion begins. If Russia cannot quickly win the war, it would attempt a coup d’etat, by invading Kyiv (Kiev), the capital, and installing its own puppets there. Or they may try to implement everything at once.

It is all in the works. They have plans upon plans with all sorts of backups to achieve their goals and bring back the wayward Ukraine into the empire’s fold. None of it would be easy. Ukraine may be smaller (40 million people) and its military forces are not as numerous, but its population is highly determined not to let the Russians to take an upper hand. The war we are expecting now has indeed been going on for the last eight years in Donbass, on Ukraine’s eastern borders. Over 400 thousand Ukrainians have gone through actual combat training and are ready to defend their country, no matter what. Many thousands have been trained as “weekend warriors” and would know what to do if the war breaks out. It will be one bloody, dirty war.

As we said earlier, these events could engulf more countries that just Russia and Ukraine. Belarus is offering its help to Russia’s invasion forces and may pay the price. Transnistria (the rogue part of Moldova) has large Russian force that could be used in the invasion. Places like the Czech Republic, Poland and the Baltics, aside from helping Ukraine with military supplies, may have to take the influx of refugees from the war zones. Israel expects to evacuate up to 75,000 people if the war starts.

Several European countries, the USA and Turkey are sending military supplies and trainers to Ukraine, ahead of the war. Do you think they would stop and walk away if the war breaks out? Unlikely they would, pulling themselves deeper into the conflict. NATO countries are seriously concerned about their own safety; they move military forces, vessels and airplanes where they would offer protection. And the war simply wouldn’t be restricted to the ground battlefields, sea and air. These days conflicts tend to manifest themselves on the infrastructure grids (as in power, telecom and online). We fully expect hacking DDoS attacks disrupting life and business all over the place. Ideological subversion through Youtube, Facebook (Meta) and Twitter, sawing discord among NATO states (Germany and France are already playing into Putin’s hands), spying, online hatred – it’s all coming along nicely, ready to burst into the open.

Few countries at odds with the rest of the Western world may use this military conflict to further their own goals, while the West is distracted – like China vs. Taiwan and the USA; Iran vs. Israel; North Korea vs. the USA; ISIS is raising its ugly head in Iraq again; several African countries where local, slow-burning conflicts may just flair up suddenly. Make your own selections.

Good ol’ Europe had not seen the prospects of war since 1945. Now, thanks to Russia, they do. Russia, in turn, faces financial, political and economic ruin if they do go ahead with their insane plans. They have been warned multiple times, however, it doesn’t seem to have any effect. An invasion would start long chains of events, likely leading to the country’s disintegration into smaller fiefdoms, eventual hunger riots and maybe even civil strife. None of it is off the table. We don’t know what the future holds. Yet this is history in the making and we see just as much as the other guy. None of it is pretty. None of it leaves much hope when Russia’s president listens to his own drummer; follows his own logic and morals; pays attention to questionable political and military advisors. They say he never “drives in reverse”, no matter what.

We think there is another equally important story being unfolded in front of us, yet nobody pays any attention or even comprehends it. Belarus dictator, Mr. Lukashenko, who stole local presidential elections and threw anyone who objected into jails and labor camps, has just lost most of his negotiating powers and importance with Russia. Not to go into many details, he has, for many years “fooled” Russia by pretending to go into political and economic union with that country, only to take a step back every time. Over years, he asked for huge amounts of money and got it from Vladimir Putin, as down payments for that unholy future “union”. Being the master manipulator, he mostly succeeded but not anymore. Over two hundred, half-a-mile long trains had just transferred Russian army equipment and troops into Belarus. Publicly, there will be there to protect Belarus from NATO and to be used against Ukraine. Yet, this is the end of Lukashenko as the sole ruler of that country. These Russian troops would most likely establish permanent bases and never leave, completing the country occupation and eventually helping to oust the dictator from power. The bloodless takeover of Belarus is complete, while the rest of the world is mesmerized by Ukraine and the possibility of the Russian invasion. Two for the price of one, how sweet it is. Ukraine may or may not fall, but Belarus is already in Putin’s pocket. You can take this further if you want. What if this whole calamity with Ukraine was only a smoke screen for bringing Belarus into the Russian empire again? Your guess is as good as ours.

Covid issues would take a back seat if this war commences. It would start something with no end in sight and would drag the world into recession, break up political unions and create new ones. It has the potential to seriously worsen economic situations in many faraway places where “war” is the last thing on their collective minds. We simply don’t know.

We are truly one spark away from some major affairs with serious aftermaths; events chaining that would lead to other, equally unpleasant events all over the globe

Hate to spell the “doom and gloom” for our readers, but don’t see much sunrise through the gathering clouds just yet. Be safe out there and stay alive.